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Weekly Mortgage Commentary

Week of December 26, 2022

Mortgage rates held relatively steady last week as most economic news came in better than expected. Consumer Confidence bounced back upward by 6.9 points to the highest level it has seen since spring. The third quarter’s GDP was once again adjusted upward for a final 3.2% reading. The core reading of the PCE Prices came in at 0.2%, providing more hope that some inflationary pressures are finally starting to diminish. As has been the case ever since the Fed began waging war on inflation, the housing market is taking the brunt of the battle. Existing Home Sales sunk another 7.7%. While New Home Sales beat expectations and registered a 5.8% increase, sales are still 15.3% lower than one year ago. Existing Home Sales are now down 37% since the start of 2022.

As we enter the last week of 2022, mortgage rates appear poised to remain mostly steady in the hopes that next year will bring more good news in the battle against inflation. However, with traders on vacation and a holiday-shortened week, volatility could spike at any unexpected news or data.

Fannie Mae PMMS

Latest Release: 12/22/2022 • 30-Year Fixed: 6.27% • 15-Year Fixed: 5.69%

Adjustable Rate Mortgage Indices

4.64%

1 Year Treasury Security

3.67%

10 Year Treasury Security

7.00%

Prime Rate

3.93%

30-Day Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)

2.428%

Monthly Treasury Average (MTA)

2.568%

Federal Cost of Funds Index (COFI)

Economic Snapshot

Dow Jones Industrial Average
10 Year Treasury Note
with 20 Day Moving Average
Gross Domestic Product

3.2%

Released: 12/22 • Previous 3.5%

PCE Price Index (core)

0.2%

Released: 12/23 • Previous 0.3%

Unemployment Rate

3.7%

Released: 12/02 • Previous 3.5%

Nonfarm Payrolls

263,000

Released: 11/30 • Previous 284,000

Retail Sales

 0.6%

Released: 12/15 • Previous 1.5%

Consumer Confidence

 108.3

Released: 12/21 • Previous 101.4

ISM Manufacturing Index

 49.0%

Released: 12/01 • Previous 50.2%

ISM Service Index

 56.5%

Released: 12/05 • Previous 54.4

Existing Home Sales

 -7.7%

Released: 12/21 • Previous -5.9%

New Home Sales

 5.8%

Released: 12/23 • Previous 7.5%

Worth Remembering

“Everyone’s life is under someone’s control – it might as well be under your own so that you can direct your destiny.” ~ Cecil B. DeMille

Recommended Reading

21 Real Estate Wins in Government Spending Package

The bipartisan spending bill passed Congress and is waiting for the President’s signature. Explore the elements that are positive for housing.

Read ➔

What Are Granny Pods?

More and more families are turning to alternative living situations for their older relatives. Learn more about adding a tiny home in the backyard.

Read ➔

This Week's Top Economic Data and Events

Intl. Trade in Goods (Advance)

Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -$97.0B • Previous: -$98.8B

With some of our trading partners still struggling, we could see the gap widen rather than contract, but mortgage rates will feel little pressure.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -1.2% • Previous: -1.2%

If the Fed raises rates 75-basis points again, markets will be disappointed, and upward pressure will return to all interest rates.

Pending Home Sales Index

Scheduled: 12/28 • Estimate: -0.5% • Previous: -4.6%

A smaller decrease in this index would be most welcome, but it could generate a very slight amount of upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Scheduled: 12/29 • Estimate: 220K • Previous: 216K

The labor market has been almost completely impervious to the rate increase from the Fed and continues to create upward rate pressure.

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Scheduled: 12/19

Any signs that inventories are growing and production levels are increasing could help provide some downward pressure on rates.

Bonehead of the Week

A “you really should listen to your mother” bonehead award goes to Joshua Mitchell in Fort Walton Beach, FL. Mitchell wanted to buy some cigarettes, but his mother didn’t want him to get any and wouldn’t give him the money. So, he wandered around and found a Walmart receipt lying on the ground. He headed to the store, stole the item on the receipt, and then returned the item for store credit. When he went to buy cigarettes, he was detained by store staff who had watched his con and summoned police.

Trivia Challenge

What state has the most pilots per capita, contributing $3.8 billion to this state’s economy?

Answer: Alaska
Learn More: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight

Economic and financial data sources include the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Federal Reserve, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Institute for Supply Management, Inc.®, The Conference Board Inc., and National Association of REALTORS®.

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Weekly Mortgage Commentary

Week of December 26, 2022

Mortgage rates held relatively steady last week as most economic news came in better than expected. Consumer Confidence bounced back upward by 6.9 points to the highest level it has seen since spring. The third quarter’s GDP was once again adjusted upward for a final 3.2% reading. The core reading of the PCE Prices came in at 0.2%, providing more hope that some inflationary pressures are finally starting to diminish. As has been the case ever since the Fed began waging war on inflation, the housing market is taking the brunt of the battle. Existing Home Sales sunk another 7.7%. While New Home Sales beat expectations and registered a 5.8% increase, sales are still 15.3% lower than one year ago. Existing Home Sales are now down 37% since the start of 2022.

As we enter the last week of 2022, mortgage rates appear poised to remain mostly steady in the hopes that next year will bring more good news in the battle against inflation. However, with traders on vacation and a holiday-shortened week, volatility could spike at any unexpected news or data.

The Mortgage Market Commentary

For twenty years, the Mortgage Market Commentary has helped real estate agents, loan officers, investment advisors, and others answer two simple questions:

Written to be consumed by an average person, this section will build your credibility and help you be seen as mortgage market expert.

One-Year Graph of the Fannie Mae Primary Mortgage Market Survey

The most recognized national “survey” of mortgage rates.

Help your contacts understand the relative direction of mortgage rate changes and gain perspective of what the last year of rates has looked like in the United States.

Fannie Mae PMMS

Latest Release: 12/22/2022 • 30-Year Fixed: 6.27% • 15-Year Fixed: 5.69%

Adjustable Rate Mortgage Indices

4.64%

1 Year Treasury Security

3.67%

10 Year Treasury Security

7.00%

Prime Rate

3.93%

30-Day Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)

2.428%

Monthly Treasury Average (MTA)

2.568%

Federal Cost of Funds Index (COFI)

The Six Most Common ARM Indices

Provide the most current ARM indices in a quick and easy to read table.

Key Items Creating Rate Pressure

Dive deeper for your contacts in understanding what could be pressuring mortgage rates either way during the coming week. 

Date, consensus estimates, and previous reading are included for context and comprehension.

This Week's Top Economic Data and Events

Intl. Trade in Goods (Advance)

Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -$97.0B • Previous: -$98.8B

With some of our trading partners still struggling, we could see the gap widen rather than contract, but mortgage rates will feel little pressure.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -1.2% • Previous: -1.2%

If the Fed raises rates 75-basis points again, markets will be disappointed, and upward pressure will return to all interest rates.

Pending Home Sales Index

Scheduled: 12/28 • Estimate: -0.5% • Previous: -4.6%

A smaller decrease in this index would be most welcome, but it could generate a very slight amount of upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Weekly Jobless Claims

Scheduled: 12/29 • Estimate: 220K • Previous: 216K

The labor market has been almost completely impervious to the rate increase from the Fed and continues to create upward rate pressure.

EIA Petroleum Status Report

Scheduled: 12/19

Any signs that inventories are growing and production levels are increasing could help provide some downward pressure on rates.

Quick-Look Economic Snapshot

The graph of the DOW Jones average and 10-year Treasury provide a fast look at the trends in the stock and bond markets. 

Ten of the most pertinent indicators are also included to highlight the performance indicators that matter.

Economic Snapshot

Dow Jones Industrial Average
10 Year Treasury Note
with 20 Day Moving Average
Gross Domestic Product

3.2%

Released: 12/22 • Previous 3.5%

PCE Price Index (core)

0.2%

Released: 12/23 • Previous 0.3%

Unemployment Rate

3.7%

Released: 12/02 • Previous 3.5%

Nonfarm Payrolls

263,000

Released: 11/30 • Previous 284,000

Retail Sales

 0.6%

Released: 12/15 • Previous 1.5%

Consumer Confidence

 108.3

Released: 12/21 • Previous 101.4

ISM Manufacturing Index

 49.0%

Released: 12/01 • Previous 50.2%

ISM Service Index

 56.5%

Released: 12/05 • Previous 54.4

Existing Home Sales

 -7.7%

Released: 12/21 • Previous -5.9%

New Home Sales

 5.8%

Released: 12/23 • Previous 7.5%

Worth Remembering Quotation

A meaningful, inspirational or memorable quotation from a respected person or historical figure.

Worth Remembering

“Everyone’s life is under someone’s control – it might as well be under your own so that you can direct your destiny.” ~ Cecil B. DeMille

On-Target Curated Content

Each week, we provide two to four articles of interest to those in the mortgage and real estate industry.

21 Real Estate Wins in Government Spending Package

The spending bill passed Congress and is waiting for the President’s signature. Explore the elements that are positive for housing.

Read ➔

What Are Granny Pods?

More and more families are turning to alternative living situations for their older relatives. Learn more about adding a tiny home in the backyard.

Read ➔

Five US Real Estate Predictions for 2023

Will 2023 bring about a recovery in real estate, or will it sink further? Follow these five trends to help understand which way the market will go.

Read ➔

Trivia Challenge

What state has the most pilots per capita, contributing $3.8 billion to this state’s economy?

Answer: Alaska
Learn More: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight

Trivia Challenge

Use the trivia challenge to spark interactions and conversations with your contacts. 

We include the answer in the template, but you can easily remove and insert a call to action to prompt a response, such as a free gift card or lunch.

The Bonehead Award

People do a lot of stupid things. Every week, we highlight one of the brilliant humans who does something like robbing a bank and leaving their wallet on the counter.

Bonehead of the Week

A “you really should listen to your mother” bonehead award goes to Joshua Mitchell in Fort Walton Beach, FL. Mitchell wanted to buy some cigarettes, but his mother didn’t want him to get any and wouldn’t give him the money. So, he wandered around and found a Walmart receipt lying on the ground. He headed to the store, stole the item on the receipt, and then returned the item for store credit. When he went to buy cigarettes, he was detained by store staff who had watched his con and summoned police.

Standardized Data Disclosure

We also provide a standard disclosure of data sources for the newsletter. 

You can use ours or incorporate it in your own disclosure.

Economic and financial data sources include the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Federal Reserve, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Institute for Supply Management, Inc.®, The Conference Board Inc., and National Association of REALTORS®.

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