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Mortgage rates held relatively steady last week as most economic news came in better than expected. Consumer Confidence bounced back upward by 6.9 points to the highest level it has seen since spring. The third quarter’s GDP was once again adjusted upward for a final 3.2% reading. The core reading of the PCE Prices came in at 0.2%, providing more hope that some inflationary pressures are finally starting to diminish. As has been the case ever since the Fed began waging war on inflation, the housing market is taking the brunt of the battle. Existing Home Sales sunk another 7.7%. While New Home Sales beat expectations and registered a 5.8% increase, sales are still 15.3% lower than one year ago. Existing Home Sales are now down 37% since the start of 2022.
As we enter the last week of 2022, mortgage rates appear poised to remain mostly steady in the hopes that next year will bring more good news in the battle against inflation. However, with traders on vacation and a holiday-shortened week, volatility could spike at any unexpected news or data.
Latest Release: 12/22/2022 • 30-Year Fixed: 6.27% • 15-Year Fixed: 5.69%
4.64%
1 Year Treasury Security
3.67%
10 Year Treasury Security
7.00%
Prime Rate
3.93%
30-Day Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)
2.428%
Monthly Treasury Average (MTA)
2.568%
Federal Cost of Funds Index (COFI)
▲ 3.2%
Released: 12/22 • Previous 3.5%
▲ 0.2%
Released: 12/23 • Previous 0.3%
⬌ 3.7%
Released: 12/02 • Previous 3.5%
▲ 263,000
Released: 11/30 • Previous 284,000
▼ 0.6%
Released: 12/15 • Previous 1.5%
▲ 108.3
Released: 12/21 • Previous 101.4
▼ 49.0%
Released: 12/01 • Previous 50.2%
▲ 56.5%
Released: 12/05 • Previous 54.4
▼ -7.7%
Released: 12/21 • Previous -5.9%
▲ 5.8%
Released: 12/23 • Previous 7.5%
“Everyone’s life is under someone’s control – it might as well be under your own so that you can direct your destiny.” ~ Cecil B. DeMille
The bipartisan spending bill passed Congress and is waiting for the President’s signature. Explore the elements that are positive for housing.
Read ➔
More and more families are turning to alternative living situations for their older relatives. Learn more about adding a tiny home in the backyard.
Read ➔
Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -$97.0B • Previous: -$98.8B
With some of our trading partners still struggling, we could see the gap widen rather than contract, but mortgage rates will feel little pressure.
Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -1.2% • Previous: -1.2%
If the Fed raises rates 75-basis points again, markets will be disappointed, and upward pressure will return to all interest rates.
Scheduled: 12/28 • Estimate: -0.5% • Previous: -4.6%
A smaller decrease in this index would be most welcome, but it could generate a very slight amount of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Scheduled: 12/29 • Estimate: 220K • Previous: 216K
The labor market has been almost completely impervious to the rate increase from the Fed and continues to create upward rate pressure.
Scheduled: 12/19
Any signs that inventories are growing and production levels are increasing could help provide some downward pressure on rates.
A “you really should listen to your mother” bonehead award goes to Joshua Mitchell in Fort Walton Beach, FL. Mitchell wanted to buy some cigarettes, but his mother didn’t want him to get any and wouldn’t give him the money. So, he wandered around and found a Walmart receipt lying on the ground. He headed to the store, stole the item on the receipt, and then returned the item for store credit. When he went to buy cigarettes, he was detained by store staff who had watched his con and summoned police.
What state has the most pilots per capita, contributing $3.8 billion to this state’s economy?
Answer: Alaska
Learn More: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight
Economic and financial data sources include the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Federal Reserve, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Institute for Supply Management, Inc.®, The Conference Board Inc., and National Association of REALTORS®.
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Mortgage rates held relatively steady last week as most economic news came in better than expected. Consumer Confidence bounced back upward by 6.9 points to the highest level it has seen since spring. The third quarter’s GDP was once again adjusted upward for a final 3.2% reading. The core reading of the PCE Prices came in at 0.2%, providing more hope that some inflationary pressures are finally starting to diminish. As has been the case ever since the Fed began waging war on inflation, the housing market is taking the brunt of the battle. Existing Home Sales sunk another 7.7%. While New Home Sales beat expectations and registered a 5.8% increase, sales are still 15.3% lower than one year ago. Existing Home Sales are now down 37% since the start of 2022.
As we enter the last week of 2022, mortgage rates appear poised to remain mostly steady in the hopes that next year will bring more good news in the battle against inflation. However, with traders on vacation and a holiday-shortened week, volatility could spike at any unexpected news or data.
For twenty years, the Mortgage Market Commentary has helped real estate agents, loan officers, investment advisors, and others answer two simple questions:
Written to be consumed by an average person, this section will build your credibility and help you be seen as mortgage market expert.
The most recognized national “survey” of mortgage rates.
Help your contacts understand the relative direction of mortgage rate changes and gain perspective of what the last year of rates has looked like in the United States.
Latest Release: 12/22/2022 • 30-Year Fixed: 6.27% • 15-Year Fixed: 5.69%
4.64%
1 Year Treasury Security
3.67%
10 Year Treasury Security
7.00%
Prime Rate
3.93%
30-Day Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR)
2.428%
Monthly Treasury Average (MTA)
2.568%
Federal Cost of Funds Index (COFI)
Provide the most current ARM indices in a quick and easy to read table.
Dive deeper for your contacts in understanding what could be pressuring mortgage rates either way during the coming week.
Date, consensus estimates, and previous reading are included for context and comprehension.
Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -$97.0B • Previous: -$98.8B
With some of our trading partners still struggling, we could see the gap widen rather than contract, but mortgage rates will feel little pressure.
Scheduled: 12/27 • Estimate: -1.2% • Previous: -1.2%
If the Fed raises rates 75-basis points again, markets will be disappointed, and upward pressure will return to all interest rates.
Scheduled: 12/28 • Estimate: -0.5% • Previous: -4.6%
A smaller decrease in this index would be most welcome, but it could generate a very slight amount of upward pressure on mortgage rates.
Scheduled: 12/29 • Estimate: 220K • Previous: 216K
The labor market has been almost completely impervious to the rate increase from the Fed and continues to create upward rate pressure.
Scheduled: 12/19
Any signs that inventories are growing and production levels are increasing could help provide some downward pressure on rates.
The graph of the DOW Jones average and 10-year Treasury provide a fast look at the trends in the stock and bond markets.
Ten of the most pertinent indicators are also included to highlight the performance indicators that matter.
▲ 3.2%
Released: 12/22 • Previous 3.5%
▲ 0.2%
Released: 12/23 • Previous 0.3%
⬌ 3.7%
Released: 12/02 • Previous 3.5%
▲ 263,000
Released: 11/30 • Previous 284,000
▼ 0.6%
Released: 12/15 • Previous 1.5%
▲ 108.3
Released: 12/21 • Previous 101.4
▼ 49.0%
Released: 12/01 • Previous 50.2%
▲ 56.5%
Released: 12/05 • Previous 54.4
▼ -7.7%
Released: 12/21 • Previous -5.9%
▲ 5.8%
Released: 12/23 • Previous 7.5%
A meaningful, inspirational or memorable quotation from a respected person or historical figure.
“Everyone’s life is under someone’s control – it might as well be under your own so that you can direct your destiny.” ~ Cecil B. DeMille
Each week, we provide two to four articles of interest to those in the mortgage and real estate industry.
The spending bill passed Congress and is waiting for the President’s signature. Explore the elements that are positive for housing.
Read ➔
More and more families are turning to alternative living situations for their older relatives. Learn more about adding a tiny home in the backyard.
Read ➔
Will 2023 bring about a recovery in real estate, or will it sink further? Follow these five trends to help understand which way the market will go.
Read ➔
What state has the most pilots per capita, contributing $3.8 billion to this state’s economy?
Answer: Alaska
Learn More: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight
Use the trivia challenge to spark interactions and conversations with your contacts.
We include the answer in the template, but you can easily remove and insert a call to action to prompt a response, such as a free gift card or lunch.
People do a lot of stupid things. Every week, we highlight one of the brilliant humans who does something like robbing a bank and leaving their wallet on the counter.
A “you really should listen to your mother” bonehead award goes to Joshua Mitchell in Fort Walton Beach, FL. Mitchell wanted to buy some cigarettes, but his mother didn’t want him to get any and wouldn’t give him the money. So, he wandered around and found a Walmart receipt lying on the ground. He headed to the store, stole the item on the receipt, and then returned the item for store credit. When he went to buy cigarettes, he was detained by store staff who had watched his con and summoned police.
We also provide a standard disclosure of data sources for the newsletter.
You can use ours or incorporate it in your own disclosure.
Economic and financial data sources include the Wall Street Journal, U.S. Department of Labor, U.S. Commerce Department, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Federal Reserve, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Institute for Supply Management, Inc.®, The Conference Board Inc., and National Association of REALTORS®.
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